MN AAAA Preview

#2 posting 3.12.2006

Minnesota is the only state in the area left playing basketball. Tonight we look at the AAAA teams. The strengths and the possible outcomes.

The action starts for AAAA on Wednesday at the Target Center in Minneapolis
Starting off with Elk River vs St. Paul Central at 10 am. They met earlier in the year in the semifinals in the Elk River tournament. SPC came away with a win that day 69-61. It will pit the dynamic duo of Buford and Robinson against six players averaging between 6.8 and 10. The lone double digit performer for Elk River is Kaleigh Day with 10. This may be tight again, but I will pick Central by 7. Both these coaches coached in the all star game last year for AAAA.
The second game of the day is Bloomington Kennedy vs Robbinsdale Armstrong at noon. This will feature the huge front line of Kennedy against the surprising entrant Armstrong. Kennedy has been consistent all year with the inside trio of Jenna Smith 21.1, Tera Steinbauer 14.9, and Ashley Robinson 12.5. Rachel Gunderson averages 13.04 for Armstrong and Megan Shea checks in with 12.1. If Kennedy gets off to a fast start it will be over by halftime. Kennedy by 23.
Game number three features Roseville vs Centennial at 2 pm. This is the most compelling game of the day in AAAA. They met early in the year at Roseville with Centennial winning 75-71. I was there, but I was not using the possession charting method. One big factor to keep in mind was that Katie DeWitt sat almost the entire first half in foul trouble and Centennial still had 44 points at half. Besides DeWitt (18.3) they have five players between 7.5 and 9.9 ppg. Roseville is led by a trio Amy Beggin 16.9, Talisha Barlow 16.3, and Alison Nash-Gerloch 15.3. Look for Roseville to come out of this one by six.
The last AAAA game has Rochester Mayo taking on Hopkins at 4 pm. This is an interesting game. Mayo is a very physical team with a strong inside game. They knocked out a Roseville player in the opening minutes going after a loose ball when I watched them down in the Rochester Tournament quarterfinals. There threesome is led by transfer Julia Hirssig 13.3, along with Karolina Haroldsdottir 11.8, and Alyssa Lunde who has returned from her injury (10.4). Hopkins has Jillian Schurle with 21.8, Caitlin Rowland with 11.4 who also has returned from her injury, and Jackie Hiebert 10.5. This will be a bruising affair with Hopkins prevailing by 11.

Now that I put the kiss of death on these teams let us look at some other interesting tidbits of information.

There are only three #1 seeds left standing: Hopkins, St. Paul Central, and Roseville. Three #2 are left: Rochester Mayo, Bloomington Kennedy, and Centennial. Two #5s upset three to get here: Robbinsdale Armstrong and Elk River.

Coaching Veterans
Brian Cosgriff of Hopkins and Larry Krieg of Elk River both have taken teams five times to the big dance. Right behind are Willie Taylor, SP Central, Percy Wade and Jill Becken of Centennial with four. Gwen Thielke of Roseville is making her second appearance, while Angie Meister of Mayo makes her first appearance.

The Northwest Suburban and Classic Lake put two teams each into the big dance but the second team from each conference does not have a winning record. In fact Armstrong was 0-8 in the Classic Lake good for last (5th) place. Elk River was in 6th place with a 9-9 record in the 10 team NW Suburban.

This is Hopkins 5th straight year in the tournament. SP Central, Kennedy and Roseville are repeaters. There is no first time entrants.

If we look at trends---
No one has won the state tournament in the four class system with more than three losses. If that is the case Hopkins and Kennedy are the only ones that meet that criteria.
Most champions come from sections 1 (3), 2 (2), 3 (2). Most tournament medals have been won by sections 2 (7), 3 (7) and 1 (5).
The Lake has been the domininant champion with four total. The Southeast Suburban has captured two. In total medals the Lake again wins with medal of some sort for each of the nine years. The SE Suburban has five, while the Classic Lake and NW Suburban have four each.

Hopkins and Kennedy met last year in the finals and it would not surprise anyone to see these two teams meet again. Both have 13-1 records against the better teams out there. Kennedy's defensive ppg is 44.64 against those teams, while Hopkins checks in with 48.1. The only other team to crack that 50 barrier is Roseville with a 49.67. The margin, however, is not that close with Kennedy a +17. St. Paul Central is second with a +11.23. Hopkins is third with 9.36.

Looking at games I charted here is the hoop scoop on the teams with these key indicators.
HOOP SCOOP
section, team, offpp100, offloor%, defpp100, deffloor% margin (opponents)
1, Rochester Mayo 88.24, .426, 97.01, .493 -8.77 (Roseville)
2, Hopkins 96.10, .488, 75.58, .356 20.52 (SP Central, Cretin-DH, Henry Sibley, Grand Rapids, Edina I, Edina III)
3. St. Paul Central 90.40, .429, 74.75, .384 15.65 (Hopkins, WBL, Woodbury)
4. Roseville 94.7, .484, 75.76, .379 18.94 (Roch Mayo, North St. Paul)
5. Armstrong 87.65, .432, 98.76, .432 -11.11 (SP Johnson)
6. Blm Kennedy 110.91, .539, 81.21, .376 29.70 (Eastview I, Eastview III, Mpls South)
7. Centennial 82.57, .402, 87.88, .402 -5.31 (Hill-Murray, Coon Rapids)
8. Elk River 82.31, .377, 82.31, .400 0 (Rogers, St. Cloud Tech I)

As you can see Kennedy runs a pretty efficient offense and Hopkins is just under .500. Roseville is the only other team above .450. Three teams hold their opponents to under .400 with Hopkins the tops at .356. Kennedy is second.

If you add up the trends...it looks like Kennedy will repeat. And it looks like a repeat of last year's contest vs. Hopkins. The AAAA championship will be Saturday night.

Next up Thorpe on a Soap box Rooster edition.