MN AAA State Preview

#2 posting 3.13.2006

The proverbial State Tournament Blizzard hit on Monday just a tad early for the games.

The AAA games start on Wednesday at the Pavillion at the U of MN campus. They were moved from Williams Arena due to the fact the Gopher men are hosting the NIT first round that night.

DeLaSalle, a first time girls entrant faces Willmar at 10 am. This is DeLaSalle's first year in AAA and they are making the most of it. They made it through a tough section with Hill-Murray, Mpls Roosevelt and a hard charging Holy Angels who finished second in last year's tournament. Section 8 also had some top flight teams. Fergus Falls, Park Rapids and Detroit Lakes were all in the top 10 at one point or another for the year. Leading the way for DeLaSalle is Rachel Booth with 15 ppg and Sheena Porter with 13.4. Willmar had to overcome some adversity during the year with injuries, but they are all back. Laura Nielsen is the big gun for Willmar with 16.8 ppg. This is a great first round matchup between two teams that are strong on defense. This will be low scoring and down to the wire. I don't see the game leaving the 40s. DeLaSalle by two in a heart stopper.

Rogers, another first timer sees Benilde-St. Margaret's who has not seen the state tournament floor since 1977. The tip off is set for noon. This is Rogers third year as a school and their team is very young still. One of two teams in the brand new Mississippi 8 to make the event they rely on guard play. Casey Mann and Jennifer Dowd are the one two punch from the back court. BSM has depth as seven play about the same minutes. Their double figure scorers are Chanica Hall 10.7, Sam Morgan 11.3, and Kachine Alexander 12.5. This will be an interesting game, but BSM has more in their arsenal. BSM by nine.

St. Michael-Albertville takes on Hermantown in the third game at 2 pm. Both survived squeakers in the section finals to play at state. Hermantown's was one for the ages. Scroll down, or go to the March archives and look for stories on March 10th. It was nuts. STMA won a title back in AA in 2001. Their one two punch is Jodi Reinschmidt on the inside (16.2) and Marla Arns on the outside (14.8). Hermantown also has a one two punch with mighty mite Anna Bjorlin checking in with 24.4, and Sara Kelly with 12.9 is the inside option. This is a interesting matchup. STMA has only one loss to a AAA team. But it will be hard to go against Bjorlin in her last chance. Hermantown by six.

New Prague tangles with Marshall at 4 pm. Both these have a state tournament championship banner or two hanging up in their gyms. New Prague is returning to the state for the first time since their title in 2000. Whitney Trecker leads the way for New Prague with 15.7 ppg. Mandy Haecherl joins her in the double digit club with 12.2. ppg. Macie Michelson is the engine that drives Marshall. The ball of energy is averaging 15.9 ppg. Julia Schultz is next with 10.3. Marshall is deep with talent and tall. They can put 6-0 on the perimeter. That changes passing angles. This won't be a snap, but Marshall by 11.

Six #1s survived the section play: Marshall (2); DeLaSalle (3); StMA (4); Benilde-SM (5); Rogers (6); and Willmar (8S). The remaining two teams were 2s--New Prague (1); and Hermantown (7). Only AA, and they have two #1s per section, sent more #1s on to state with seven.

Brad Atchison of Willmar will be taking his fifth team down to state. Ron Gunderson of New Prague is making his fourth appearance. Beth Clark is making her third appearance. Bruce Remme is making his second appearance in a row. Four coaches make their initial showing: Carol Thielen-Richter of DeLaSalle; Lamar Detert of Rogers; Kent Hamre of St. Michael-Albertville; and Bob Lyons of Benilde-St. Margaret's. Atchison and Gunderson have won one title. Atchison when he was at Midwest Minnesota in 1986, and Gunderson with New Prague in 2000.

Most AAA champions have had under four losses heading into the tournament. The only exception was in 2004 when Mpls North won with 8 losses. That year Mia Johnson was hurt for a portion of the year. If we use 4 losses as the cut off then Marshall, Benilde, Hermantown and Willmar should be in the hunt. If we open it to 8 everyone is in the mix.

As far as which conference has dominated the AAA side of things the answer for championships Minneapolis with four all at the hands of North. Since they are not involved for the first time since the breakdown of the four class system, the next in line is the Southwest with two, the Missota and Central Lakes has one each. Minneapolis has nine medals total (all North). The Big 9 has four. Both these conferences are not playing in this years AAA tournament. Also with four is the Southwest conference, The Missota has three, and the Central Lakes has two.

Looking at the medal count section 5 has 11. Isn't that a couple to many? Yes, but I am using current configurations, or where teams that have been advance to AAAA (Chaska, Prior Lake) would be placed. Section 2 has produced five medal finishes with section 1 (4), Section 8 (2), Section 6 (2) also holding multiple medals. Sections 3, 4, and 7 have one each. If you look at the tournament that way then Benilde and Marshall look to be strong contenders.

Hermantown and Marshall are the only returning teams from a year ago.

BY THE NUMBERS
Both Marshall and Benilde have 11 wins against top level teams. Marshall beat the SD AA champion Sioux Falls Roosevelt 60-53 on F18. They also faced the #1s in AAAA and AA for their only two losses. Benilde picked up a few losses, but two were in Illinois to Fenwick and Trinity two of the best in that state.

Willmar has the lowest team defense with 43.45 points allowed against the better teams. Marshall and DeLaSalle also are under 50 ppg allowed on defense. As far as the margin goes Marshall is the only team in double digits with +10.54. Benilde would be next at +7.07.

I have not seen all the AAA teams up close and personal this year. New Prague, Hermantown, and Willmar escaped by gaze. I saw St. Michael-Albertville early before I started using the possession method. I also saw one game for Marshall (Kennedy) and Benilde (Minnetonka). These games are not included in the numbers. It must be understood the individual games are but glimpses into the trends of each team. It would be like trying to understand a movie by only seeing three scenes. It is not complete, but I think there is some truth in the numbers.
Taking a look at the teams I saw
team, offpp100, offfloor%, defpp100, deffloor%
Marshall 84.41, .419, 86.63, .412 (Breck, DeLaSalle, Worthington)
DeLaSalle 79.85, .381, 84.73, .405 (Andover, Marshall)
Benilde-SM 102.86, .514, 67.61, .282 (Mpls North)
Rogers 82.2, .432, 80.83, .383 (Elk River, Mpls South)

I don't know if Mpls North was the best test since they were the only sub .500 team in the list above, but Benilde is a force. Still my lean is toward Marshall. It may be Marshall vs Benilde in the final. There that is my kiss of death on AAA.

Next up tomorrow with AA preview and A preview.