State Championship Trends

#1 posting 1.30.2006

Today we look at what the four past state champions in MN trended as they won their championships and which teams are trending that way now, and which teams are off in one or more key indicators. But first the parade

POINT PARADE
MN
AAA
Maria Boever, Worthington 26 vs Luverne 69-62 (j28)

NEB
C2
Carlee Johnson, Wausa 28 vs Coleridge 63-46 (j28)
D2
Hayley Thramer, Ewing 33 vs Verdigre 54-31 (j28)

SD
A
Abby Plucker, Parker 31 vs Chester 59-35 (j28)
Tyann Pourier, Little Wound 30 vs Flandreau Indian JV 111-23 (j25)
B
Jill Young, Mitchell Christian 41 vs Freeman 65-42 (j28)

STATE TOURNAMENT TRENDS
There are three main indicators that need to be looked at in past tournaments and then we see the trends this season. The three big indicators are: 1. Strength of schedule; 2. Defense against quality opposition; 3. margin against quality opposition. I call these teams Qteams.

AAAA
The 3 numbers to pay attention to--14; 45.3 (adjusted for 36 minutes), 14.8
At this point in the season Bloomington Kennedy is under for defense and over for margin (17.2). They are the only AAAA team to achieve that. Only two other teams are above +10 on margin--Mpls South (14.6) and Hopkins (10.6). Woodbury reaches the defensive mark, but is only a 2.0 on margin. St. Paul Central is close in margin (8.7), but allows 55.6 against Qteams. All the other top 10 teams have margins under 5.7, some are close to 0.
TRENDING: Kennedy

AAA
The 3 numbers: 15, 50.6, 12.4
Three teams are playing a tough schedule, and all three are holding the top 3 spots: Marshall, Detroit Lakes, Benilde-St. Margaret's. However only Marshall and Detroit Lakes have beat the margin level that is championship level. BSM is only 4.7. Both Marshall and DL are under in the defensive level. Hibbing has strong showings on defense and margin, but their schedule is too thin according to trends. They have only played 3 Qteams.
TRENDING: Marshall/Detroit Lakes

AA
The 3 numbers: 18, 38.1, 14.9
Most teams have two bases covered, but no one has all three. The #1 team Breck comes closest as they have a 45.3 defensive rating. Barnesville is the lowest at 35.2, but do not play the strong schedule like Breck. Rochester Lourdes is at 39.2, but their margin is at 6. Also the suspension of Breland will throw off some of the momentum they were building. MVL has a high Qmargin as does Kingsland, Albany, and Crookston. The thing these teams lack: MVL plays a class A schedule and gives up 52.9. Giving up over 50 is almost a death sentence for AA championship level. Crookston gives up 58 and does not play that strong a schedule. Kingsland and Albany have defenses in the mid 40s. Kingsland plays a stronger schedule than Albany.
TRENDING: Breck

A
The 3 numbers: 13.5, 51.2, 12.3
The first thing you may notice is the defensive number pops up to 51.2. Qteams are hard to play day in and day out in A. The team right now with the toughest schedule is Lakeview with 7 games. Elgin-Millville is at 6 and they play AA schedules. The others are 4 or under. Lakeview is under on D, and over on Qmargin. Browerville and Ada-Borup also have those numbers covered, but neither plays that strong a schedule. Two teams Barnum and Elgin-Millville have negative Qmargin numbers. Not a good sign. What about the #1 team Osakis? They have schedule problems, give up 55.5 (second highest in the top 10), and margin is 8.3.
TRENDING: Lakeview

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