Thursday, January 12, 2006

MN AC D2

Again??
Tonight I went to Coon Rapids to watch Champlin Park and CR, but the game started a 6 pm and I arrived at 7:03 thinking the game was at 7:30. I had checked the State HS website (7:30) Sports Huddle (7:30), StarTribune web site (7:30) however only one site Minnesota-Scores had the correct time (6). I did not check that until I arrived at home.

Division 2 All Conference
MN
Minnesota has 10 D2 schools in it's borders and just across the state line there are five more. For that reason the 105 rostered players are easier to understand. 15 of these players were all conference. This is the list of players
NCC
Lindsey Dietz (Elk River) UM Duluth
Ashley Langen (Kittson Central) North Dakota
Kristi Boese (Rochester Mayo) North Dakota
Sascha Hansen (Marshall) St. Cloud State
Ericka Quigley (Duluth East) St. Cloud State
Arin Andrews (Triton) MSU Mankato
Allison Adamson (Willmar) Augustana
Northern Sun
Regan French (Marshall) SW MN State
Nakia Carlisle (St. Paul Central) Concordia St. Paul
Carly Christensen (Elk River) Concordia St. Paul
Kayla Christensen (Elk River) Concordia St. Paul
Steph Mayclin (Breckenridge) UM Crookston
Jackie Doerr (LeSueur-Henderson) MSU Moorhead
Jessica Fesenmeier (BOLD) MSU Moorhead
California
Margaret Johnson (DeLaSalle) UC San Diego

Nine of these players played in the state tournament, seven of those in the championship game.
Winning % in HS came to .833 (339-68). Arin Andrews was the only player to come from a team with a non winning record (12-14) her senior year. Jackie Doerr was one game above.
The average height comes in at 5-10.6, or about two inches off the D1 MN average. Adamson is the smallest at 5-5.
The class, again, is dominated by 05s and 06s as should be expected. The average was 2005.9. Only one player from 08 made AC--Ashley Langen.
The bigger HS divisions provided the most AC players, althougth not at the same rate as D1. D1 came in at 3.67, while D2 was at 3.1. Class AAAA delivered six players, Class A one--again Ashley Langen.
The College/HS ratio is higher at D2: .856 while D1 came in at .591. Again this is all MN data at this point. Three players had ratios higher than one: Regan French 1.08; Lindsey Dietz 1.07; and Ericka Quigley 1.22. Possible reasons for the increase for these players: in French's case she was surrounded by quite a bit of talent--Shannon Bolden, Sascha Hansen, Stephanie Bolden. All went on to play post HS. French was not the first option, and she also was not in complete games that often as Marshall won by large margins. Dietz and Quigley are both bigger players and the game is more physical than in HS, perhaps some fouls called in HS were no longer being whistled in college. Also the games are longer.
Looking at my rating system the players from the earlier time (in the pre number score era) were not a good indicator of post HS success. But starting with the 06 class things start to take shape. Carlisle was a #5 in both the 02 HS class, and in the point guard division. No numbers ratings were involved this season. Dietz was #12. Even so, this year did not give the best answers, more tinkering with the formula, an increase in data went into the computer.
The 07 class (03 HS) had numbers finally. Quigley was listed as the # 3 power forward (behind Broback and Melissa Miller D1 starters in the Big 10) #12 overall. Allison Adamson was listed as #6 in the point guards, #14 overall. The point guards ahead of Adamson were Roysland, Mia Johnson, Justine Axtell (now at UM Duluth) and Shannon Francis (St. Cloud State, but should probably be considered a shooter), and Leah Payne (no longer playing and overrated at the time). Still another screen needed to be used. Jessica Fesenmaier was injured as a junior and was not rated. The system does not rate players that have not played.
Langen was the only 08 player and she came in as #3 in the posts behind VandeVenter (Iowa) and Kari Schmidt (Minnesota Track). Langen came in at #8 overall for the 2004 class behind Knight, VandeVenter, Schmidt, Johnson, Lisa Bue, Jackie Norton, and Miller.
It is too early to see if the 2005 class has any AC potential for either D1 or D2.