In the Weeds

#4 posting 1.29.2006

Yes it is true. This is # 4. I had to go through the backlog of newspapers that were piling up.

However tonight we will look at the week ahead, and the teams that have been in the top 5s (in games I have seen). We will also take a look at what teams are laying in the weeds as section time approaches.

The Week Ahead
There are a lot of tasty games on tap this week as conference races begin to simmer and steam up.
Monday J30
Carlton @ Barnum
Bemidji @ Crookston
Albany @ Eden Valley-Watkins
Dawson-Boyd @ Lincoln HI
Tuesday J31
DeLaSalle @ Breck
Lakeview @ Dawson-Boyd
Fergus Falls @ Detroit Lakes
Hopkins @ Minnetonka
Cannon Falls @ Rochester Lourdes
St. Paul Central @ St. Paul Johnson
Thursday F2
Carlton @ Esko
St. Cloud Apollo @ St. Cloud Tech
Friday F3
Becker @ St. Michael-Albertville
Benilde-St. Margaret's @ St. Francis
Apple Valley @ Bloomington Kennedy
Mpls South @ Breck
Rochester Lourdes @ Pine Island
St. Paul Highland Park @ St. Paul Central
Hill-Murray @ Tartan
Saturday F4
Grand Rapids @ Hopkins
Winona Cotter @ Minnehaha

TOP 5 PERFORMANCES (of games I have charted so far, going back to D13)
Offense PP100
1. Hopkins 125.5 vs Cretin-Derham Hall in Apple Valley Tournament
2. Breck 124 vs Marshall
3. Mpls Roosevelt 107.5 vs Mpls Washburn
4. Hill-Murray 107.4 vs Centennial
5. Tartan 106.9 vs Blaine

Scoring %
1. Hopkins .647 vs Cretin-Derham Hall
2. Breck .580 vs Marshall
3. Hopkins .529 vs Henry Sibley
4. Bloomington Kennedy .509 vs Eastview
5. Apple Valley .507 vs Omaha Skutt
The interesting fact is all five of these teams that were the opponents have a winning record this season. Four have been in the top 10 (Skutt is in the top 10 in class B in Nebraska)

Defense pp100
1. Eastview 50.6 vs Rochester Century
2. Rochester Lourdes 51.9 vs Osseo
3. St. Cloud Tech 54.4 vs Fergus Falls
4. Lakeville North 59.4 vs Rochester JM
5. Mounds View 59.5 vs Stillwater
Three of these games were in the first round of the Rochester tournament. Could it have been the lay off? could it have been the bigger floor?

Defensive Floor %
1. St. Cloud Tech .228 vs Fergus Falls
2. Rochester Lourdes .241 vs Osseo
3. Lakeville North .250 vs Rochester JM
4. Eastview .271 vs Rochester Century
5. Woodbury .273 vs Bloomington Jefferson

INDIVIDUAL TOP 5S (minimum of 10 possessions in the game, from J13 on)
PP100
1. Ashley Robinson, Bloomington Kennedy 150 vs Eastview
2. Jenny Theisen, Champlin Park 135.3 vs Osseo
3. Talisha Barlow, Roseville 126.7 vs North St. Paul
4. Melissa Kloos, Mayer Lutheran 123.5 vs Holy Family
]5. Daneille Cook, Moorhead 123.5 vs Buffalo

Floor %
1. Ashley Robinson, Bloomington Kennedy .714 vs Eastview
2. Talisha Barlow, Roseville .667 vs North St. Paul
3. Danielle Cook, Buffalo .647 vs Buffalo
4. Lauren Young, Edina .600 vs Wayzata
5. Jenny Theisen, Champlin Park .588 vs Osseo
5. Melissa Kloos, Mayer Lutheran .588 vs Holy Family
The only player whose team did not win was Kloos of Mayer Lutheran

LAYING IN THE WEEDS
These are teams that are sub .500 right now that will have a major impact on what happens in their sections. I'm not saying all of these teams will get to state, but they will determine who will go in some manner. If teams are not paying attention and just look at records they may be sent packing.
AAAA
Blaine: went to state last year, 7 is wide open, 6-12 record, but margin is a +0.3. They are in most games. Last 4 games offense is up 10 points. Defense is down 3. Margin is at 13.8 Blaine is 6-12
Mounds View: plays in tough Suburban East, but is in section 5. That race is wide open. margin right now is at -6.7. MV is 6-13.
Another team that is sub .500 in that section is Armstrong. They have 7 losses against state rated teams. There are none in 5. Armstrong is 8-10.
Elk River: Their margin is at -1.6. They have one big advantage--they have pinned the only loss on St. Cloud Tech, the probable #1 seed in 8. ER is 7-11
AAA
Lakeville South: plays in the brutal Lake and has only played one game against a AAA team (New Prague) and they beat them 51-45. Their record is 4-14, and margin is -9.3.
Minneapolis North: the three time defending state AAA champs are 3-14, and have faced a lot of adversity this season losing players to transfers, and Maurika Carlisle to a knee injury. However Coach Patterson has transformed this group into a force to be reckoned with. They are averaging 56.4 in January with games in Chicago over the MLK break and game against Burnsville and Armstrong were close. But the thing that should make 5AAA very very afraid was what happened last Thursday at Roosevelt. North won 78-73. North has been to the state every year since the 4 class system has been in place. Do not look past the Polars for a return trip.
AA/A
There are no teams that are sub .500 that have a snow flakes chance in a blast furnace to get to state.

Tomorrow AM
What a state champ looks like using past stats. Who is on track and why tomorrow.

Next posting close to 8 am