The Week That Was #14: Glaeser's Theorem

#7 posting 2.25.2007
your daily dose of girls basketball news & information

THE WEEK THAT WAS #14: OSCAR EDITION
5 games in 6 days.
For those keeping track it is 103 games so far....

You might say this was top 10 week as I saw 60% of the AAAA top 10 teams in three days. Teams are starting to click with their offenses polished up. Barnum set a season high mark for pp100 at 119.3, and Centennial and SPC each tested that range with 109.0 for Centennial and 110.7 for SPC. SPC did have the best floor % of any team this week with .520.

Also a couple of teams slammed down defensive markers. Park-Cottage Grove and New Prague were rock solid with their defense. PCG held Coon Rapids, a team that had just knocked off Champlin Park for the second time this season, to 43.9 pp100 and .211 floor %.
New Prague also has a fierce defense and halted Prior Lake with a .294 floor% and 60.3 pp100. Both teams make life miserable for teams they see. And don't forget St. Paul Central who held high flying Mpls South to a sub pp100 for the first time we have seen this season.

Barnum, a team in the A class, had the best offense revolving around a post player (Colleen McKay). McKay also had the best off hand of anyone we have seen this year.

Since it is Oscar night I will hand out some prestigious awards:
Best Crowd cheers give & take: Centennial vs Champlin Park.
Toughest road to state by Class for a #1 seed
AAAA: Rosemount
AAA: Rogers....only because of injuries and sickness.
AA: West Central/Pipestone
A: RTR/SW Star--any section that puts Fulda as #2 is playing with fire. I don't know if anyone has fire insurance.
Easiest path to state by class:
AAAA: St. Paul Central. By no means will it be a cakewalk, but comparing the other sections I see flaws for every section. Central wins by process of elimination.
AAA: Becker. in a breeze
AA: Albany. should make a return trip again.
A: Ada-Borup

I should point out that last week in SD two #1s turned in their uniforms: Pine Ridge in A and Mitchell Christian in B. Also, if you are into horror stories, once upon a time the Faribault boys were undefeated and #1 in the state, but lost in the first round of 1AA (then) to Red Wing a 1-20 team.

Every team that wins a region/section/district, whatever the term is, has to play through its bad half. This is "Glaeser's Theorem" which states: in order to win a tournament a team has to survive their bad half." Every team will have a point where things go wrong. It is important to time it so the other team also has their down time at the same time. Of course if you have more than one bad half you are probably turning in uniforms the next day.
Mark Glaeser, my college friend, came up with this theorem back in the 1980's

TEAM OF THE WEEK
#1 St. Paul Central is undefeated and made a loud and clear statement on Saturday that they intend to keep it that way with a 83-64 win over Minneapolis champ & #2 South in the Twin City Championship. They did it front of the state's basketball red carpet elites in an overflow blizzard crowd at South.

Central has been demolishing opponents since the first of the year. Central has increased its pp100 41.16 from the start of the year, and their floor % has improved +.203.

Central is the only undefeated team left in the state. They have the best offensive average regardless of class at 85.7; and best margin at 43.6. And these numbers are actually supressed because Central won't go over 100 on their city neighbors when they very easily could, they have flirted with the century mark 12 times with 90s.

Coach Taylor has molded these players together as a team, and speaking from experience with players coming into a school, it is not easy to do. They are definitely clicking and the improvement in Jones for one has been rapid.

This is Central's second time as team of the week. They also was team of the week in week four after they beat Hopkins the second time.

PLAYER OF THE WEEK
Angel Robinson has also shown improvement from the first game. Her pp100 moved from 74.2 to 90.1 to yesterday's 122.7. her floor % has also zipped up from .323 to .455 to a scintillating .591. She has command of the ball, and her team. She handles the ball as an extension of her body, her passing game is deceptive, she is the state's all time steal leader, and her rebounding is extremely underrated. Her shot selection has improved. Central is much more at ease as is she. Early in the season things seemed forced. That isn't the case now. That spells trouble for the rest of the state.

She has laid down the gauntlet to the rest of the senior class for post season top honors.

FIRST TEAM
Kiara Allums, Centennial
Natalie Gigler, Champlin Park
Georgie Jones, St. Paul Central
Colleen McKay, Barnum
Angel Robinson, St. Paul Central
SECOND TEAM
Megan Myhre, Barnum
Kellie Schuneman, Centennial
Becky Theisen, New Prague
Jenny Theisen, Champlin Park
Jackie Voigt, Park-Cottage Grove

DEFENSIVE WRAP TEAM
Remember this is based on defensive wraps. I don't measure denials or things like that.
Kiara Allums, Centennial
Georgie Jones, St. Paul Central
Katya Leick, Park-Cottage Grove
Colleen McKay, Barnum captain
Megan Nipe, Centennial

PAST TEAMS & PLAYERS OF THE WEEK
1 Centennial---- Megan Nipe, Centennial
2 Mpls South---- Alyssa Karel, Cretin-Derham Hall
3 Osseo----Janessa Wolff, Park Rapids
4 St. Paul Central----Kachine Alexander, Benilde-St. Margaret's
5 Wayzata----Cassie Rochel, Lakeville North
6 Champlin Park----Kachine Alexander, Benilde-St. Margaret's
7 Bloomington Kennedy---Shakila Boler, Bloomington Kennedy
8 Albany----Sam Larsen, Albany
9 Braham----Bri Zabel, Northfield
10 Champlin Park----Jenny Theisen, Champlin Park
11 Mpls North-----Maurika Hickman, Mpls North
12 Mpls South----Tayler Hill, Mpls South
13 Winona Cotter----Brianna Mastey, Becker

TOP SEEDS
A
1 East Rushford-Peterson; West Goodhue
2 North Cedar Mountain-Comfrey; South Springfield
3 North RTR; South SW Star
4 North Heritage Christian; South: Southwest Christian Chaska
5 North Battle Lake; South: Hancock
6 East: Nevis; West: Ada-Borup
7
8 East: Clearbrook-Gonvick; West: Badger-Greenbush-Middle River

AA
1 East Winona Cotter; West Kingsland
2 East Hayfield; West MN Valley Lutheran
3 North West Central; South Pipestone
4 East: Minnehaha; West: Jordan
5 North Eden Valley-Watkins; South: Norwood-Young America
6 East: Pierz; West: Albany
7
8 North: Crookston; South: Hawley

AAA
1 New Prague
2 Marshall
3 DeLaSalle
4
5 Benilde-St. Margaret's
6 Rogers
7 Duluth East
8 North: Detroit Lakes: South: Willmar

AAAA
1 Rosemount
2 Hopkins
3 St. Paul Central
4 White Bear Lake
5 Osseo
6 Mpls South
7 Centennial
8

SEEDING STATE
A time for a look at the weekly seeding the state:
seed, team, section
AAAA
1 St. Paul Central 3
2 Centennial 7
3 Mpls South 6
4 Hopkins 2
5 Rosemount 1
6 Moorhead 8
7 Osseo 5
8 White Bear Lake 4

AAA
1 Becker 4
2 Detroit Lakes 8
3 New Prague 1
4 Holy Angels 3
5 Marshall 2
6 Mpls North 5
7 Rogers 6
8 Hibbing 7

AA and A don't seed. But the hope is that will change for next year.

A LOOK BACK AT 2003
How is the 2003 class finishing up their college career? 20 started off from that class as freshmen, and held steady for the sophomore year. They are now at 15. 5 started as freshmen, that number jumped to 10 as sophs, and it still is at 10 today. There are 10 that get 20+ minutes a game, with only one player not a starter (also one starter gets less than 20 minutes a game). The 2003 HS class has 3 players that are averaging double figures
Kelly Roysland, Minnesota, Fosston 13.7
Megan Vogel, South Dakota State, St. Peter 18.1
Kristin Wiener, Northern Illinois, Holy Angels 15.1
So where were these kids in the all state lists? and what about the all conference kids from last year?
First off the Miss Basketball 5 were Roysland (see above); Megan Ronhovde (a starter at Iowa State since a freshman); Jamie Broback who quit after last year; Liz Podomonick, who also quit after last season, and Justine Axtell who starts at MN Duluth.
The AP team had the same first five. no other 2003 made the 2nd team.
Braun and Wiener were 2nd team on the MN Basketball news AAA team with Alison Adamson (Augustana), Bri Monahan (Gustavus) and Erika Quigley (St. Cloud State) all making first team. Vogel made the MN BB News first team.
On the coaches All state list Wiener never shows. Braun made it and so did Vogel.
On the Pioneer Press team Vogel and Weiner did not make first or second team.
Wiener was not involved in the all star game either.
Where was Vogel and Wiener on my lists? Wiener was 4th in the power forward division and 16th over all. Vogel came in at #40. Why so low? Probably due to missing stats. After every year I re-evaluate the number crunching and modify variables. This was the first year trying to rate players on the system so it was in "beta" as they say.
Holy Angels was 20-9 Wiener's senior year; St. Peter was 16-9 and lost to MVL in the west finals in 2AA.
Here are the top 5 2003 playing today.
Megan Vogel, South Dakota State, St. Peter 18.1
Kristin Wiener, Northern Illinois, Holy Angels 15.1
Kelly Roysland, Minnesota, Fosston 13.7
Alyssa Nelson, Montana State, Breck 9.8
Tamra Braun, Valparaiso, Prior Lake 9.5
By class only 3 AAAA; 4 AAA; 7 AA; 1 A

THE WEEK AHEAD
Monday, Feb 26
There is some make up games from Saturday postponements, but 1AA is down to their subsection semis starting tonight. 4 sections in 3 classes in action. Best bet: Kingsland vs Pine Island in Rochester.

Tuesday, Feb 27
Things pick up with more sections kicking in. There will be 10 sections going, 3 classes. A lot of preliminary rounds, with 1 vs 8 type games. Interesting match ups include New Ulm at Litchfield and Hutchinson at Mankato West. Hutch beat MW early in the year.

Wednesday, Feb 28
It is quarterfinal night for the AAAs and AAAA in four sections. Interesting match up in 1AAAA with Rochester JM at Lakeville North.

Thursday, Mar 1
16 sections start humming. Chaska at Eden Prairie is a 4/5 match up in 2AAAA; Tartan is at Woodbury in 3AAAA in another 4/5 fight.

Friday, Mar 2
A relatively quiet day with 6 sections playing down. 1AA East and West crown their champs. Pipestone vs St. James could be interesting provided they both win on Tuesday. 3A south and North crown their champs.

Saturday, Mar 3
14 sections topped off with section semis in 3AAAA and 3AAA. Keep this day open.

ELSEWHERE
Iowa wraps up their final selections for the state tournament on Monday after the winter storm wrecked plans. Their state is from March 5-10.
North Dakota's Bs start their tournament in Minot on the 1st. The As have their regionals this weekend.
South Dakota will deciding state entrants all week. Their tournament is the following week.
Wisconsin has a few more regionals to finish on Monday, then they will have the section semis on Friday and finals on Saturday. Their tournament is March 8-10.

Next up: tomorrow morning