A Analysis

#10 posting 3.13.2007
your daily dose of girls basketball news & information

A STATE ANALYSIS
The viewings of state entrants at this class is the lowest (50%). Again we are dealing with time and distance questions. All the northern teams were unviewed.

Here are the four southern teams that I saw
section, team, (viewed-last) off pp100; floor %; def pp100; def floor%
1 Rushford-Peterson (1-feb 26), 92.42, .409; 42.42, .242
2 Springfield (1-mar 5) 83.56, .438, 62.67, .320
3 Fulda (1-dec 2) 48.57, .229; 104,35, .493
4 CHOF (1-mar 7) 94.37, .451, 64.29, .343

RP smoked Fillmore Central in the game I saw. The opposition will be much tougher now. If you look at their offensive floor% number (.409) and the difference with their pp100 you will realize they are very good 3 shooting team.

Springfield had to come back for their win against Nicollet. They kept playing their game and were in rhythm. Their inside duo of Domeier and Schwanke plus Wilhelmi on the outside provided the in/out that is critical in post season.

Fulda's viewing was against Minneapolis South in the first week of the year. Probably not the best indicator of how they will function this week. One thing is for certain they will not see the same kind of pressure that South provided.

If you notice CHOF has the best floor % of any of the teams. With a veteran coach, who knows the value of a possession, the CHOFers are like a finely tuned machine right now. They have been under the radar, but should not be trifled with now.

It pays to be in a strong conference. RP has not lost to A teams this year. Fulda's only blemish in A was to SW Star, but they took care of that in the subsection finals. Hancock has only one loss in A to Minneota. AB has steamrolled opposition in A with their only loss to Crookston. AB has beat BGMR by 24 and also owns a win over AA Barnesville early in the year. CHOF also has few losses in A with two losses by a total of three points early in December. CHOF did play St. Paul Central.

Newcomers to the party include Rushford-Peterson, and BGMR. BGMR's coach Tom Neibauer has over 500 wins, but this is his first trip down in 27 years.

Fulda and Ada-Borup were here last year.

Four teams have won titles previously in A. Fulda (last year); CHOF in 1998; Hancock in 1997, the first year of the 4 class system; and Chisholm back in 1984 in the old two class system, but they still have the same coach Mike Chiocetto.

PLAYERS
Again not much of a sample but here is who I saw during the year. To be listed the players had to be on first or second team of the week or named trench players.
Rushford-Peterson Bailey Vitse
Springfield Krystle Schwanke
Fulda--none
CHOF Sarah Palenschat.
Fulda came up blank, but they were the only team to battle against a high class team in Mpls South (#2 in AAAA).

SEEDS
All seeds are subsection seeds so there would have been two #1s, two #2s, etc.
1s: Rushford-Peterson, Springfield, Hancock, Ada-Borup, Chisholm, and BGMR
2s: Fulda, CHOF

CONFERENCE FINISHES
1s: Hancock, Ada-Borup, BGMR
2s: Fulda, Chisholm
3s: Rushford-Peterson
4s: Springfield
CHOF does not belong to a conference.

Springfield was 4th in the brutal Tomahawk (MVL, Cedar Mt-Comfrey, New Ulm Cathedral) but was the #1 seed in the 2A South subsection.

PREDICTIONS
QUARTERFINALS
again this is section, not seed. the A games are divided between Target Center and the Sports Pavillion.
TARGET CENTER
4 CHOF vs 8 BGMR. In the battle of the initials it goes to CHOF. Coach Harms has his teams peaking at this time of year. They looked very efficient and disciplined last week. They have a steady point guard in Damara Scheeler and a post that can dominate the paint in Palenschat.

1 Rushford-Peterson vs 3 Fulda. Interesting match up. Both teams have height, RP may have quicker guards. But Fulda has championship experience and they want out as champs. Fulda by 8.

SPORTS PAVILLION
2 Springfield vs 6 Ada-Borup. This will be closer than people realize. Springfield has twin posts, but Ada-Borup has Smarts: Coach David and daughters Kelli and Nicole. AB moves on by 8.

5 Hancock vs 7 Chisholm. Chisholm plays the likes of Hibbing in Iron Range action. Their only bad loss was a spanking by Barnum 71-41. Look for Chisholm to move on by 7.

SEMIFINALS
CHOF vs Fulda. Two Kramers are too much inside for CHOF. Fulda moves to the finals with a 10 point win.

Ada-Borup vs Chisholm. AB's buzz saw continues to move forward with a 12 point win.

FINALS
Fulda vs Ada-Bourp. Repeat after me: Fulda by 4.

next up: how PGs in AAAA stack up.