AA Analysis

#9 posting 3.13.2007
your daily dose of girls basketball news & information

AA STATE ANALYSIS
Last night I looked at the AAAA and AAA classes
As we go further and further down the classes, my viewings of the teams decreases due to time and distance. It is hard to make a 3 hour turnaround from Barnesville. I did catch more action this year, but I have only seen 62.5% of the entrants this year.

section, team (# of times seen), off pp100; off floor %; def pp100; def floor%
1 Caledonia (1--feb 27) 97.0, .463; 88.1, .373
2 Faimont---did not see
3 Pipestone----did not see
4 Jordan (2-feb) 95.59, .441; .89.86, .428
5 Norwood-Young America (2-feb) 89.86, .428; 95.59, .441
6 Albany (1-jan) 108.0, .507; .74.32, .378
7 Esko---did not see
8 Barnesville (1-dec 2) 67.53, .351; 85.71, .429

Compared to the AAAA and AAA teams the samples here are pretty thin. There should be a warning on the Barnesville information: #1 it was early in the year, #2 the game was against Cretin-Derham Hall. Lately they have been on a tear. They beat a tough DGF in the subsection semis 54-42. Then beat Hawley in the 8AA South subsection finals in another slugfest 45-36. Then they got their revenge on Crookston for the second time of the year 72-66. Last year Barnesville lost in the 8AA finals to Crookston. They finished 27-1. However they lost Kelsey Jacobson to Moorhead and their coach to Mayville State. They were 6-4 at the start of the year as the team adjusted to the new realities. After the first of the year Barnesville's only loss was to Hawley. Coach Matt Askegaard has the team motoring at the right time.

Albany impressed me with their outside shooting, and ball movement. They played perennial power New London-Spicer when I watched. Albany bumped off Wayzata and got revenge for their only loss against 8AAAA 2nd place finisher St. Cloud Tech 62-58 for games against AAAA teams. Their only games in the 10 point range or under against similar AA teams were against Eden Valley-Watkins, Sauk Centre. and Pierz 43-41. The second time against Pierz in the section final there was no close game 72-48.

If you look closely you will notice that the Jordan/NYA #s are flipped. That is because I saw them play each other twice during the year. The first game went down to the last shot. The second game went into overtime. As is true with rivals that know each others every move the games had drama.

Caledonia put up some good numbers. They trailed Plainview-Elgin-Milliville in the game I watched. They have size inside and decent guards. The scored when they needed to down the stretch and slammed the door on defense. They were a top 10 team most of the season.

Looking at the margins of victory 6 of the top 10 teams are still playing for the main prize. Albany leads that category with 24.6. Esko is right behind at 24.3, but they have more As on their schedule

With the field as is there will be a new first time state champ.

Caledonia has been in the title game back in 1998.

Albany has the most entrants into the state and longest current streak at five straight.

Esko joins them in their return.

First time entrants are Fairmont, Jordan and Norwood-Young America.

Jordan won the state AA Volleyball title and the main ingredients on that squad lead the Jaguars in basketball.

Jordan and NYA are both in the Minnesota River Conference. Caledonia and Rushford-Peterson(A) and Pipestone and Worthington (AAA) represent the Three Rivers South and the Southwest conference.

With top 10 teams falling like #1 Winona Cotter and #3 Crookston the field becomes wide open.

Three of the teams were not listed in the final AP poll--Fairmont, Pipestone, and Barnesville. Only Fairmont never had a spot in the top 10 poll during the year.
Pipestone beat SD B Champs Sully Buttes during the season.

PLAYERS
Here are the players that either made the team of the week, player of the week or were (trench player)
Caledonia (Danielle Frank)
Jordan Leah Dietel, Brittany Chambers 2, Amanda Dietel
Norwood-Young America Rachel Pexa, Rachel Hanson
Albany Sam Larsen
If you notice only one Player of the week is still left in the tournament.
Now every team has more players of interest, but these were the ones that made my listings for the week when I saw them.

SEEDS
1s: Pipestone, Jordan, Norwood-Young America, Albany, Esko
2s: Caledonia, Barnesville
3s: Fairmont

CONFERENCE FINISHES
1: Jordan, Albany, Esko, Barnesville (tied)
2: Caledonia, Pipestone, Norwood-Young America
3: Fairmont

PREDICTIONS
QUARTERFINALS
All #s are sections, not seeds
4 Jordan vs 8 Barnesville. A very interesting match up right away. Barnesville does have some tournament experience. Jordan has tournament experience, but not in basketball. This will be the best match up in AA. Barnesville has been on a roll and I think the roll continues, but by 4.

1 Caledonia vs 3 Pipestone. Another interesting match up with height at Caledonia vs Pipestone's veterans. Pipestone only losses were against higher class teams. Look for Pipestone to upset Caledonia by 5.

2 Fairmont vs 6 Albany. Fairmont is healthy and feeling good, but Albany has too many weapons and, looking at the defensive numbers for Fairmont, will be able to get their points. Albany in a 10 pointer.

7 Esko vs 5 Norwood-Young America. Esko has been there, NYA hasn't. Look for the experience to push Esko on in a 6 point win.

SEMIFINALS
Barnesville vs Pipestone. This will be where Barnesville takes the next step by 5.

Albany vs Esko. Albany gets to the finals for the first time in a 9 point win.

FINALS
Albany vs Barnesville. Albany shooters will be hard to handle and they win by 12.

next up: A analysis, and then a look at the AAAA point guards.