AAA Preview

#8 posting 3.10.2008
your daily dose of girls basketball news & information

AAA PREVIEW
The field is set. The seeds are planted and the AAA tournament will begin on Wednesday at split sites.
At the Target Center it will be #1 DeLaSalle vs #8 Austin; with #4 Minnehaha vs #5 Fergus Falls later.

At Williams Arena #2 Rogers vs #7 Marshall; with #3 Totino-Grace vs #6 Grand Rapids to follow.
The semis take place on Thursday night.

I have seen every team at least once. I have seen DeLaSalle three times and Totino-Grace twice.
A Look at the field
section, Seed, Team, record, final AP poll, MN Scores QRF poll
1, 8, Austin, 20-7, NR, 11
2, 7, Marshall, 20-8, NR, 9
3, 3, Totino-Grace 25-3, 5, 4
4, 4, Minnehaha 26-3, 3, 8
5, 2, Rogers 26-3, 2, 1
6, 1, DeLaSalle 27-1, 1, 1, 3
7, 6, Grand Rapids 25-4, 10, 6
8, 5, Fergus Falls 24-4, 6, 7
Only three of the teams have lost to AAA teams: Austin 2, Marshall 5, Minnehaha 2. At least one will join them on Wednesday.
Margins vary from the high of 34.2 of DeLaSalle to the 7.8 of Marshall. Three of the teams have 20+ margins with DLS, Minnehaha and Totino-Grace north of that mark.
I looked at Quality wins (wins over teams in the top 75 of the MaxPreps poll). Rogers leads that mark with 11, followed by Marshall with 7. Austin and DeLaSalle each have 6. Totino-Grace had the lowest title for 2.
Here is a look at the pp100 and floor % numbers
team, pp100, floor %; Dpp100, Dfloor%
Austin 86.57, .373; 61.76, .309
Marshall 91.18, .412; 101.45, .493
Totino-Grace 76.87, .366; 71.64, .343
Minnehaha 88.41, .435; 66.67, .319
Rogers 70.0, .340, 65.38, .308
DeLaSalle 96.2, .446, 68.4, .335
Grand Rapids 92.06, .444, 60.32, .286
Fergus Falls 81.67, .400, 62.9, .355
Now keep in mind I only saw most of these teams once, so it is just a snap shot. I think if I have three, four games under the belt then it gives a better indication. Look at at the past two winners (since I have been doing this blog)
2006: Benilde-St. Margaret's 89.6, .448; 63.89, .302
2007: Becker 75.35, .351, 63.17, .325
The thing that strikes me is that defense rules in this class. So about five teams would seem to be in the hunt--Austin, Minnehaha, DeLaSalle, Rogers, Grand Rapids--if you use that metric.

There is one D1 signee in the AAA tournament: Hannah Draxten of Fergus Falls. She is headed to Iowa.

There is one D2: Aaryn Booker of DeLaSalle to St. Cloud State.

Here is a thumbnail on all the teams with players to watch
AUSTIN: runs 9 players in and out in waves, uses 1/3/1 zone and likes to press. Brittney Gibson is the guard that hit the buzzer beating three to send Austin to the dance. Tina Vorpahl is strong and active.
MARSHALL: Used zone early in the year. doesn't quit, uses the 3 ball to good effect. Anna Full is the main force for Marshall, able to score in and out. Marshall took the volleyball state title in AA this year. They came back in the championship game so it is in their DNA to rally and never quit.
TOTINO-GRACE: another team that uses plenty of bodies. They have been to the tournament last year and were bumped by Detroit Lakes. They want to avoid that scenario this year. Lizzie Naumann is a big target for TG. Also Veronica Scott is a player to reckon with.
MINNEHAHA: used the press early in the year. Players to watch: My three -sons or sens. Megan Erlandson is the point guard that came in from Concordia Roseville. Rachel Hansen is a perimeter shooter. Sarah Peterson can score both in and out. Add to the mix Katelyn Adams, a 6-4 post that is improving daily, and you have a recipe for success. This is their first AAA tournament.
ROGERS: Precision, control, match up zone defense, and guards define the Rogers formula for success. Rogers dumped the defending state champs Becker three times this year. Last year Rogers was not at full strength. This year the injuries have healed. Casey Mann is a 2000 point scorer and Jennifer Dowd has a good feel for the game. They made the tournament two years ago, but didn't advance. Both Mann and Dowd will look to change that result.
DE LA SALLE: Has been perched a top the ratings since early in the year. The Islanders use plenty of players as well. It is their third straight journey to the the Target Center. They have the shortest trip of any team in the state. Aaryn Booker is a powerful force inside. Anna Kovalchuk can hurt the opposition outside. They also have a freshman that turns heads in Tori Rule. But it is the relentless defensive full court pressure that gives this team their signature feature.
GRAND RAPIDS: GR is another team that uses many bodies. The Thunderhawks didn't get the attention during the season, and that may be to their advantage. They can score outside with lefty Ashley Runge providing long range sniping. They have some bruisers inside with Cagle and McBride. And their bench was effective.
FERGUS FALLS: This is the first time in the tournament for the Otters. They have played a lot of tight contests in the Central Lakes. A senior dominated line up. Hannah Draxten is their go to player and she can fire away from behind the arc.

So what does the crystal ball say?
I see the top seeds moving on, but the upset (there has to be one) is Grand Rapids beating Totino-Grace.
In the Semis it is a heart stopper again for DLS and MA with DLS winning for the third time. Rogers moves on in the night cap.
In the Finals Rogers will keep the AAA Championship in the Mississippi 8 (or 9).

next up: AAAA preview