AAAA Preview

#9 posting 3.10.2008
your daily dose of girls basketball news & information

AAAA PREVIEWS
The two week sectional battles are over. The survivors meet at the Target Center on Wednesday starting at
10 am with #1 seed Minneapolis South vs Owatonna
noon: #4 Osseo vs #5 Chaska
2 pm: #3 St. Paul Central vs #6 St. Cloud Tech
4 pm: #2 Eastview vs #7 St. Francis
this year the semis are on Thursday AFTERNOON. Make sure you understand that. The reason is the AAA games are late on Wednesday and they are given time to rest for their semis in the evening.

I have seen these teams multiple times with the exception of Owatonna. The most viewed is South with 7, most have five sightings.

So here is the first preliminary numbers
section, Seed, Team, record, final AP poll, MN Scores QRF poll
1 8 Owatonna 21-8, NR 25
2 5 Chaska 21-8, NR 13
3 2 Eastview 27-2, 3, 4
4 3 St. Paul Central 25-4, 6, 6
5 4 Osseo 24-5, 10, 8
6 1 Minneapolis South 26-3, 2, 2
7 7 St. Francis 26-3, NR 17
8 6 St. Cloud Tech 28-1, 7, 9

The field has a 200-32 record--.862 winning %, slightly better than the AAA field of 193-33 and .854.
Four #2s made the field. Three unranked teams crashed the party, although both St. Francis and Chaska did spend time in the top 10 during the year.
The margins range go from a high of 34.5 to a low of 6.1. Minneapolis South and St. Paul Central both are north of 30 in the margin department, partially due to the fact their conferences are not as challenging as the Lake. Chaska has the low margin with 6.1, again conference has plenty of influence there.
The quality wins have piled up for Eastview this year. They have 21 quality wins, the low end goes to St. Francis with three wins against teams in the MaxPreps top 75. Five of the teams have between 12 and 9 quality wins.
Here is a look at the pp100 and floor % numbers
team, pp100, floor %; Dpp100, Dfloor%
Owatonna 88.57, .443; 84.29, .400
Chaska 101.66, .470; 100.0, .464
Eastview 81.22, .437; 76.92, .370
St. Paul Central 78.71, .404; 90.51, .442
Osseo 80.75, .388; 88.51, .419
Mpls South 104.02, .480; 78.0, .384
St. Francis 100.0, .493; 77.54, .370
St. Cloud Tech 72.46, .348; 72.14, .371
It is interesting to note that both Central and Osseo have higher Defensive numbers than offense. Why? I have seen all four of the Central losses and the big loss Osseo had vs Centennial. That skews the numbers to the wrong side of the equation. That shouldn't give folks the impression that they aren't a threat. They are.
Look at the last two state champs--
2006: Hopkins 97.96, .493; 78.41, .365
2007: St. Paul Central 97.7, .473; 70.08, .354
The teams in this years tournament don't approach the defensive numbers (yet). But the two lowest belong to Eastview (who I have seen five times) and St. Francis (twice). Tech is also close, but their offense is also on the same level. If you look at the high end Chaska both scores a lot, and allows a lot---in the pp100 system.
At this time there is one team that has huge differential between pp100 and dpp100---Minneapolis South +26.

The AAAA tournament has seven players that have signed with D1 schools. Guards/perimeters predominate with four. Three are headed to BCS schools.
Courtney Boylan of Chaska is headed to Michigan; Kiara Buford of Central is staying close to home with the Gophers. Teammate Georgie Jones is headed to Marquette to join former teammate Angel Robinson. Buffalo has two players committed with Beth Christensen of Owatonna and Ephesia Holmes of Mpls South. Ironically they face each other in the opening game. Brittnye McSparron of Eastview is headed to Drake. Jennifer Sunnarborg of Osseo is going to South Dakota State.

There are only two D2 commitments: Lauren Barber of Owatonna is going to MSU Mankato. Ali Schwartzwald of St. Francis is going to Wayne State, Nebraska.

Only St. Cloud Tech doesn't have a player that has made a choice yet.

Of course Tayler Hill of South is a high D1 prospect.

TEAM BY TEAM
OWATONNA: A #2 seed in the section that won the rubber game with Rochester JM. It was interesting to me that Beth Christensen was bringing the ball up against Mankato West. Lauren Barber was deadly that night. She can take over a game. When Christensen fouled out and the game tied, she simply grabbed the game by the throat and stuck it in her pocket. The third option is Amy Kubat, a smaller post.

CHASKA: Another #2 winner. Down 12 to start the 2nd half in the championship, Chaska used the inspired play by Boylan and company to get the job done. This is Boylan's team, but the Hawks have some solid sophs in Brooke Brown, Brianna Tisch and reserve Degler. For them to keep moving forward they will need to tighten up the defense. No team will allow Chaska the comeback ability again.

EASTVIEW: Eastview uses quickness (they are Lightning after all) to key their defense. They don't allow many easy looks or shots. Brittnye McSparron has the keys to the car. She has a killer pull up jumper. DaNae Moore is an athlete and a slasher along the baseline. Sam Mehr can strike from behind the arc. Their schedule has prepped them for a deep run.

ST. PAUL CENTRAL: The defending state champs still have important parts to the championship puzzle. They still have quickness, they still have size inside. They have a one two punch with Buford and Theairra Taylor on the outside. Jones and Megan Howard provided an inside presence. The key may come down to the point play of Kyana Johnson. If she stays in system Central could be a challenge. Also the bench has to step up and provided quality minutes.

OSSEO: Another #2 seed. The slayers of #1 Centennial are making their second straight trip. They moved up in the seeds this year and with their balance, and athletic ability will be a tough team to handle. Danielle Mangen can hurt the opposition from deep. Jennifer Sunnarborg is finishing her career strong. They are a hard hat kind of team and simply get after it. The Orioles will need to avoid foul problems to advance.

MINNEAPOLIS SOUTH: This #2 seed in 6AAAA is the #1 seed in the state. They got their revenge against Hopkins in the section final. With Tayler Hill on the squad they are always a threat. South can beat you in a myriad of ways. Take away the drive and they hit the trey ball. Get up on them and they drive to the glass. They make more free throws than their opponents take. The three headed monster of Hill, Holmes and Tyisha Smith is the best in the state, bar none. The Tigers aren't post oriented but have a big presence in Taquoia Hammick. Their bench also contributes quality minutes.

ST. FRANCIS: St. Francis has good guard play, and a decent inside presence. They played zone to start both games I saw. They have decent quickness and are underrated. If teams don't come out to play them hard from the start, they will have problems with the Saints. No AAAA coaches were there on Saturday. That I found interesting. Schwartzwald and Borstner provide most of the fire works. St. Francis probably didn't get much love due to the North Suburban conference. But the Saints topped Totino late in the year in a key win.

ST. CLOUD TECH: Had a strong won/loss record, but again, like St. Francis had questions about the strength of schedule. Offensively, when I saw them, they struggled in the half court game. Jordyn Sears likes to transition. Kristin Johnson has shown big improvements inside over the year. Hannah Zwiener is the 3 point threat. Tech uses man as their bread and butter defense.

So what does the crystal ball say?
I don't see any differential with the seeds on Wednesday. Some might be tighter, but all favored teams move on.
In the semis, South will have more fire power than Osseo. Central will get Eastview in the semis to set up a rematch from last year.
That contest will go to South this time, for their third win over the Minutemen this year.

Next up: An observation from Coach Teas--behind the camera