AA Previews

#9 posting 3.11.2008
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AA PREVIEWS
I HAVE seen all the 8 teams this year. So my insights here cut across the field. There are interesting match ups across the board and many will want to see 6-7 Amber Dvorak of HF.

These games take place at Williams Wednesday. Again this class is not seeded. The games were predetermined
10:00 1-Caledonia vs 4-Jordan
noon: 5-Howard Lake-W-W vs 8-Crookston
2:00: 2-Hayfield vs 3-MN Valley Lutheran
4:00: 6-Albany vs 7-Hinckley-Finlayson

I have seen Albany and Jordan three times. Both lost once. Both HLWW and HF lost when I saw them. So my viewing record is 8-4. Overall this field has the best record as a class 208-23 .900 winning %.
Two #2 seeds advanced to the tournament HLWW and HF. This would be like a #3 or #4 seed in AAA or AAAA.
So here is the first preliminary numbers
section, Team, record, final AP poll, MN Scores QRF poll
1 Caledonia 26-3 nr 12
2 Hayfield 25-3 nr 11
3 MVL 27-2 10 9
4 Jordan 27-2 4 7
5 HLWW 25-5 nr 10
6 Albany 27-2 2 2
7 Hinckley-Finlayson 23-5 nr 19
8 Crookston 28-1 1 1
Half the field was not rated in the last AP poll. HLWW was in the poll early in the year. Hayfield was also in the poll at various points during the year.
Four teams have offensive fireworks north of 70, Crookston tops the field with 82.7. Defensively Hayfield allows 36.4, the lowest of the bunch.
Crookston has only one loss, and that is to Fargo Shanley, a North Dakota A team. It was by only one point. Kamille Wahlin did not play in that game due to illness. HLWW and HF have five losses to AA teams.
Crookston has seven wins against AAAA and AAA teams the most in the field. There schedule was the toughest of any of the AA teams. Four teams (Caledonia, Hayfield, MVL, HF) don't have wins against any upper division teams.
Here is a look at the pp100 and floor % numbers
team, pp100, floor %; Dpp100, Dfloor%
Caledonia 63.01, .301; 32.39, .155
Hayfield 120.0, .545; 70.18, .351
MVL 89.61, .468; 65.79, .368
Jordan 104.85, .485; 96.53, .431
HLWW 81.94, .389; 90.0, .429
Albany 92,58, .437; 82.1, .393
HF 60.61, .288; 101.52, .439
Crookston 100.0, .453; 64.0, .320

Look at Caledonia's numbers. The offensive numbers are very low, but their defensive numbers are rock bottom. Hayfield's numbers are in the stratosphere on offense. HF had the lowest offensive pp100, and had the highest defensive numbers. It should be remembered that I have only seen Jordan and Albany three times, the rest is only a one snapshot view of the season.

Look at the last two state champs--
2006: Cannon Falls 91.42, .429; 85.03, .412
2007: Pipestone 91.06, .415; 85.48, .387
Remarkably similar. my guess is that the defensive numbers will be lower this year. According to the markers and trends five teams make the mark on offense, and five make the defensive mark. Making both lists: Hayfield, MVL, Albany, and Crookston.

Here is the list of AA players off to collegiate ball:
D1: The biggest player in state tournament history, 6-7 Amber Dvorak of Hinckley-Finlayson gets to test out her future Gopher home floor. Kamille Wahlin of Crookston is headed to Iowa.
D2: She isn't the only Pirate playing collegiately next year. Sydney Epema is off to Bemidji State, Macy Hanson is staying close to home at UM Crookston, and Molly Simmons is off to Mary.
Albany has two signees. Jennie Noreen will join sister Joanne at MSU Mankato. Taylor Voss will go to SW MN State.

TEAM BY TEAM
CALEDONIA A Defensive minded team with presses and many players in and out of the line up. The Warriors are athletic, and aggressive on defense. LaCrescent had a miserable time scoring. But then so did Caledonia. Libby Augedahl is a strong wing type player (think Megan Nipe at a AA school). This is their second straight trip to the tourney. They want to last longer than round one.

HAYFIELD. Making their first trip since 2000. Hayfield has a good mix of seniors and sophomores. Hayfield is deliberate and patient on offense. And when we saw them against Byron in February, they were extremely efficient on offense. Kiley Severson ruled the paint (she was player of the week that week). Leslie Wilson is a smart wing player. And another soph Jordyn Krekling provided some offense.

MN VALLEY LUTHERAN Another team that was dynamite on offense early. They run when possible. MVL uses plenty of players in their race horse pace. defensively MVL was quick and aggressive with their hands on many passes. Kara Black is the post for MVL with good feet. Amanda Burk is another strong post. Everyone contributes with good balance. What may hurt MVL is they don't play the same schedule that Hayfield does.

JORDAN. The one two punch of Brittany Chambers and Leah Dietel is lethal. But now others are starting to step up and deliver. O'Malley, Clark and Amanda Dietel have all stepped up from the earlier game we saw. Jordan is still young, but they are tournament savvy. They know how to win championships with a volleyball title in their trophy case. Now they are looking for a basketball version. Chambers is a power packed point guard with acrobatic maneuverings. Leah Dietel is a finisher and can hurt teams in a myriad of ways. The Jaguars will need to tighten up the defense if they want to move on. They have played harder than the first game I saw this year when Holy Family beat them to loose balls.

HOWARD LAKE-W-W. I saw HLWW at Eden Valley-Watkins back in December. In that game they looked like they were out of the game, but came storming back to take a second half lead before EVW won the game. HLWW beat EVW after two regular season losses in the post season. HLWW has inside/outside combinations with Christina Gruenhagen their inside presence and Katie Pettit their floor general. Add in Brittany Drew and HLWW has three important weapons.

ALBANY. Last year saw their state tournament dreams go up in smoke on a disputed 3. This year the main figures are back and they want to make sure the same fate doesn't happen again. Jennie Noreen and Taylor Voss are the perimeter threats. Noreen can slice through the lane. Voss is a long range back breaker. Sam Larsen is an athletic inside force. The difference this year has been the emergence of Hannah Hylla, another inside presence. Larsen needs to avoid the fouls for Albany to go deep.

HINCKLEY-FINLAYSON. The first time entrant has size and then some. Amber Dvorak is 6-7, but they also have a 6-1 post in Emily Scholten. Their main guard is Lisa Lymburner who checks in a 5-11. When we saw HF during the year Braham took the early lead and didn't let go. HF shook off that game and now they are in the tournament while Braham is in Algebra class. HF prefers zone defense.

CROOKSTON. It seems this group has been playing forever. The Pirates have veteran leadership, a deep bench, quick aggressive athletes and they are on a mission. They were second in the 2006 tournament and this is the last shot for a title. They looked outstanding against Winona Cotter in late December. They scored 15 points in a two minute span. Their press was effective, and Cotter is no slouch. At least four of these players will continue to play after high school. The floor general is Kamille Wahlin is aware and smart. They have what I would consider five starters.

So what does the crystal ball say?
Interesting contests throughout. Jordan has offensive weapons to overcome Caledonia's defense. Crookston has the firepower, leadership and motivation to move on. The most intriguing game of the day goes to Hayfield over MVL in a nail biter. Albany takes care of HF.
In the semis look for a barn burner that goes to Crookston in a battle of top notch guards. But Crookston has more balance and depth. Albany takes Hayfield.
In the battle of the past two runners up look for Crookston to take the title back to NW Minnesota.

next up: tomorrow morning