AAAA State Analysis

#9 posting 3.12.2007
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AAAA STATE PREVIEW
Successful ingredients for a state championship include a strong point guard, an inside presence, some perimeter shooting. and good defense. Who makes these marks?
St. Paul Central comes up aces in all categories.
They are playing for the history books.

I have seen most of the teams in state more than once. The exception is Roseville.
Section, Team, (# of viewings-last), offpp100; off floor %; defpp100; def floor %; margin
1, Lakeville North (4-feb 28) 81.9, .400; 67.2; .325 +15
2. Edina (3-mar 9) 86.5, .433; 75.1; .367; +11
3. St. Paul Central (4-mar 8) 97.4; .460; 73.3; .375 +24
4. Roseville (1-dec26); 60.3; .293; 91.5, .444
5. Osseo (2-dec26) 89.4, .426; 69.3, .350 +20
6. Mpls South (5-mar 9) 102.8; .507; .83.2; .406 +19
7. Champlin Park (5-mar 6) 99.2; .479; 91.0, .420 +8
8. Moorhead (2-mid feb) 93.7; .461; 90.6; .406 +3

The top offense is South's with a 102.8 pp1000; What about St. Paul Central? I saw them in the first game of the year and their pp100 only was 69.5. If we eliminate that contest SPC's pp100 is 107.3, and .511 obviously the best.

Defensively Lakeville North makes life difficult for opponents, but Osseo is right on their tail.

Also looking at these numbers the Osseo numbers pop out as does the traditonal teams St. Paul Central and Mpls South. Osseo has speedsters and have been competitive with Champlin Park (two losses by a total of four points) and Centennial (one loss by 3). The are the sleeper team that people are overlooking.

The argument always goes out about who plays a tougher schedule, Which conference is better. The Lake has had a team in the finals every year since 2000. If they are to keep the streak alive the youngsters from Lakeville North will have to pick up the torch.

Only once in the 10 year history of the AAAA tournament has a non metro team won the title. That took place in 1997 by Rochester Mayo with the Miller Twins. The only non-metro team this year, Moorhead, did get to the finals in 1999, but were stopped by Cretin-Derham Hall for the title. That was the last time a "city" school won the title. CDH was in the St. Paul City conference at the time. St. Paul Central is looking to add to that title.

Four of the teams in the hunt have won titles in the past (Lakeville North--as Lakeville); Edina; St. Paul Central, and Osseo.

Roseville and Moorhead have reached the title game in the past.

Champlin Park and Minneapolis South are looking for their first wins in the contest.

Of the current crop of coaches only Andy Berkvam of Lakeville North knows the championship feel.

HOW ABOUT THE PLAYERS
These players are expected to make an impact this week. They have already this year. Of course an unamed player could get hot, but we are talking three games over four days.

Teams, players have been on either the first of second team in the Week that Was, plus Players of the Week (trench players not on the first teams of the week)

Lakeville North: Kaiya Sygulla, Cassie Rochel 2 (Rachel Banham)

Edina Taylor Young 2, Lauren Young

St. Paul Central Ebony Black, Megan Howard, Georgie Jones 2, Angel Robinson 3, Theiarra Taylor 1

Roseville none

Osseo (Kylie Gottsman, Melissa Henderson)

Minneapolis South Tayler Hill 4, Ephesia Holmes 2 (Tyisha Smith)

Champlin Park Ashlynn Fuller 3, Natalie Gigler 3, Jenny Theisen 3

Moorhead Kassie Hooten, Kelsey Jacobson

If you notice only SPC has five mentioned. And that doesn't even include dangerous Kiara Buford. Champlin Park, Mpls South, and Lakeville North have three cards on deck. LN has in and out game, They will be dangerous. South is all outside. Edina is forever Young. Moorhead is another in and out team. But size does make some difference. Osseo has the most interesting combination up there because Kylie Gottsman did not get that much time after the Mpls SW game where I named her trench player of the game.

Now Talisha Barlow of Roseville should get some attention. Her #s weren't at gold standard when I saw Roseville in Rochester, but she is the main ingredient at Roseville averaging 20 ppg.

SEEDS
Here are the top seeds left standing
1s: St. Paul Central, Osseo, Minneapolis South, Moorhead
2s: Roseville, Champlin Park
3s: Lakeville North, Edina

CONFERENCE FINISHES:
1: St. Paul Central; Minneapolis South
2: Champlin Park
3: Edina
4: Osseo
5: Lakeville North; Roseville
none: Moorhead isn't in a conference.

Last year Hopkins won with these numbers: pp100 97.7; off floor % .493; def pp100 78.41; and def floor % .365 just for frame of reference.

PREDICITIONS
QUARTERFINALS
#1 St. Paul Central vs #8 Roseville. Too much fire power. Roseville doesn't have fire insurance. SPC by 40+
#4 Edina vs #5 Moorhead. Dangerous 3s from Jacobson of Moorhead. But Edina's defense is stronger so Edina moves on. Moorhead will be physical. Edina is more finesse.
#3 Champlin Park vs #6 Lakeville North. Seniors vs JR High; This game will be uncomfortably close for CP, but they move on.
#2 Mpls South vs #7 Osseo. Two schools that I used to coach at. Will South be able to score against a team just as fast? Will South play defense like North I or North II? Can Osseo handle the inevitable pressure. South takes the game by 10.
SEMIS:
St. Paul Central continues its march through March with another big win this time over Edina, but by 30.
Champlin Park takes South out with a high scoring affair by a whisker.
FINALS:
St. Paul Central tops Champlin Park again by 30 to take its place among the pantheon of great teams in Minnesota.
Central is that good. Just ask Woodbury, and Cretin-Derham Hall. History is about to be made.

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