AAA Analysis

#10 posting 3.12.2007
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AAA STATE ANALYSIS
This tournament is one of the more interesting of the four this week. The theme for the teams in AAA is Defense. Who ever takes the title will be a rough and tumble back street brawler.

Again I have seen most, but not all of the teams. Hibbing was just too far away. The only time they came down in the metro I was at the Becker event. There was no other time that worked out to see the Iron Rangers. That is why I am going to the AAA Quarters on Wednesday.
For the most part I have seen these teams against quality opposition.
1. New Prague (2-mid feb) 80.9, .397; 64.1, .321
2. Worthington (1-late jan) 97.4, .474; .86.7, .413
3. DeLaSalle (4-mar 3) 72.6, .340; 71.2, .351
4. Becker (4-mid feb) 71.4, .332; 60.6, .297
5. Benilde-St. Margaret's (2-dec 29) 105.5, .531; 83.3, .389
6. Totino-Grace (2-jan) 68.7, .343; 52.9, .254
7. Hibbing (none)
8. Detroit Lakes (2-mar 3) 79.1, .380; 58.6, .297
I have highlighted the teams that hold teams to under 70 pp100 and under .300 floor %. TG's numbers are so low, because they suffocated Mahtomedi when I saw them in January.

BSM's numbers are not current because they were without LaToya Williams in the first game I saw. Now they are without Sam Morgan and also Kachine Alexander who went down with a foot injury against Chisago Lakes in January. They have regained their balance. I hear rumoramas that KA will be back on Wednesday. Right now I will say that won't happen. But they have the most high powered offense.

Becker, with their big line up, gets their mileage on defense. The odd fact is their offensive pp100 is the second lowest of the remaining 8. Their floor % is the lowest of the 8. The big reason for that is their game against Hopkins early in December. If we eliminate that game they are at 79.1 and .365, still not in the stratosphere.

New Prague and Benilde-SM have won trophies. BSM is trying for the repeat. New Prague is back again from last year, and won it all back in 2000.

If you look at what sections have been strong only 2, 4, 5, 8 have won the top prize. In fact 5 has been in the finals in every year but one (2001). That is good news for Benilde-St. Margaret's.

Only one year there was no metro team in the final game (2001 again).

Last year BSM averaged 89.6 and .448 on offense; 63.89 and .301 on defense. No team is on the mark on the offensive end. Four are in the hunt on the defensive side.

According to the #s the best AAA conference this year was the Missota. They checked in with a 83.7 pp100 and .412 floor %; The North Suburban was 73.9, .360; and the TriMetro (primarily a AA conference was at 77.11, .353. New Prague had the toughest schedule. By the way NP were ahead of St. Paul Central at half time AT CENTRAL in December. It was only the second time SPC was down at half this year.

PLAYERS
New Prague Becky Theisen 2, (Amanda Wagner)
Worthington Gabrielle Boever
DeLaSalle Aaron Booker, Anna Kovulchuk
Becker Brianna Mastey 3,
Benilde-St. Margaret's Kachine Alexander 2*
Totino-Grace Jessica Meyer, Lizzie Naumann
Detroit Lakes Hallie Hoganson, Corey Lof

Notice a couple names that aren't on the list: for New Prague Whitney Trecker, for DeLaSalle Rachel Booth. They haven't made the gold standard in games I have watched. I know they have had nice seasons, but now we will see if they raise their game to next level. My expectation is both will get on board this week.
Alexander is only one of two players (Angel Robinson is the other) that have been named player of the week twice.
I also think it is interesting that only one player has made the list for Becker and BSM and in both situations they were player of the week.
No AAA teams have been named team of the week this year.

SEEDS
1s: New Prague, DeLaSalle; Becker; Benilde-St. Margaret's; Detroit Lakes
2s: Worthington; Totino-Grace; Hibbing

CONFERENCE FINISHES
1s: New Prague, DeLaSalle; Becker; Benilde-St. Margaret's; Totino-Grace; Hibbing; Detroit Lakes
3: Worthington

PREDICTIONS
#1 Becker vs #8 Worthington. They played down in Worthington and Becker won the contest. Look for a repeat performance.

#4 New Prague vs #5 Benilde-St. Margaret's. This is the best matchup of the first day in any class by far. Two veteran teams, with coaches that have hoisted the trophy. This year New Prague moves on in a grind it out game.

#3 Detroit Lakes vs #6 Totino-Grace. This is another pit bull game. DL has a strong point guard in Hallie Hoganson. DL has been at state and will be looking to take the next step. DL in a narrow win.

#2 DeLaSalle vs #7 Hibbing. DLS will be ferocious on defense. Hibbing does have Nikki Klink and 6-2 Alia Cook as an in and out punch. But the DLS waves put Hibbing under.

SEMIS
Becker vs New Prague: With the pressure New Prague applies and their speed (think Rogers) with their discipline on offense look for the upset. by 7.

Detroit Lakes vs DeLaSalle. In the battle of the Ds the winner will be the one that can stay out of foul trouble and convert at the line. Look for DL to grab a narrow win.

FINALS
New Prague vs Detroit Lakes. NP takes the finals for their second trophy with a tough-nosed win over DL.

Next up: tomorrow morning, later tomorrow the AA and A analysis.