Monday, December 19, 2005

Two Paraders, Small school scorers

Point Parade
FL
F. Pressley, Father Lopez 29 vs LeCanto 59-41 (this parader brought to you by former Osseo coach Dave Thorpe who is living it up in Florida since he has retired.)

MN
AA
Jenny Gilbertson, Winona Cotter 25 vs Plainview 69-38

Small school Scorers
IA, MN, and WI have had three players from the small schools make names for themselves by capturing the total point records in each of their states: Deb Remmerde, Rock Valley to Iowa (and then Northwestern, IA); Katie Ohm, Elgin-Millville to Minnesota (redshirt); Jolene Anderson, South Shore to Wisconsin.
Of these three Anderson has had the most success post high school at the higher level, although to be fair to Ohm it is too early to tell. Anderson averaged around 36 points her senior HS year. She started all 28 games her freshman year and averaged 17.8 points. So her HS to College rating is a .494. However most WI division 4 players (the small schools) averaged .265 last year. That includes Anderson. It would be safer to say .200 would be closer to the mark. That means some player averaging 20 in WI class 4 ball would expect about 4 ppg at DI level. And that may be high.
Remmerde averaged 28.7 in her senior year and went to Iowa, but left early her freshman year playing in about two games. She ended up close to home at Northwestern of Orange City Iowa. Her hs to college rating at the NAIA level is 1 to 1. She averaged 28.7 last year at NW. Only three players from class 1A (smallest) in Iowa were rostered and their average was .187. That translated means the 20 point HS player is 3.74 in D1.
Reasons for this possibly could be
Lack of strong competition in HS
Lack of comparible size in opponents
No one else who can shoot on the team meaning the player is taking an obscene amount of shots.

UPSHOT: When recruiting small school players make sure you understand what they may deliver according to historical models. For those of you at D2 you may add 100 to the average (.187 for D1, .287 for D2 meaning a 20 point scorer is now a 5.74 D2 player). I will try to have a D3 specific level next year, but I assume it would be close to 150 to 200 higher than D1.

Stay tuned for more insights.
I hope you read all the posts--as many as three a day.
Tomorrow look for two (after school edition and bedtime edition)